✪ Five Things To Watch In Trump’s State Of The Union Address Tonight

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istorically, the President’s party often suffers midterm losses; and the House appears especially vulnerable this year. However, President Trump will be eager to reverse that trend tonight by delivering a lengthy speech promoting his policy wins over the past year. “It’s going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about,” the President said during an event at the White House on February 23. Here are five key highlights to watch for at this year’s State of the Union address:

✪ ONE: Midterm Messaging

With only eight months remaining until the midterm elections, Republicans are working to win voters; especially independents who backed Trump in 2024. However according to recent polls, many voters are still anxious about the high cost of living. Trump is likely to prioritize the economy in his speech and talk about what he has done to lower gas, housing, and health care costs for American families.

Luke Nichter, professor of presidential studies at Chapman University in Orange, California, believes Trump’s primary message will be about the midterms.

“He wants to make sure those enthusiastic supporters are still enthusiastic, they still support him, and continue to turn out this fall,” Nichter said.

Tonight’s address comes on the heels of the Supreme Court’s decision last week which struck down the President’s trade tariffs imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Trump sharply criticized the ruling & the justices who supported it and has since pledged to raise global tariffs to 15 percent using other statutory authorities. During a February 20th press conference, Trump said he was “ashamed of certain members of the court.” Hence, his tone and remarks toward the justices in the room will be closely watched during this address.

Trump is expected to continue making the case for high tariffs; even as some Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns about their economic impact.

Immigration will also be a key topic of discussion, as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains shut down due to an ongoing budget funding disagreement between the White House and congressional Democrats. Trump is expected to defend his administration’s policies while adopting a more measured tone in light of two recent fatal shootings by immigration agents in Minneapolis.

Aaron Dusso, a political science professor at Indiana University, believes Trump will try to shift the deportation narrative during his speech; especially given recent criticism of the domestic immigration crackdown and declining approval ratings.

“This is going to be an opportunity for him to command attention across the entire country,” Dusso said.

✪ TWO: Important Foreign Policy Questions

Foreign policy has typically not been a major focus in past State of the Union addresses; as presidents usually prioritize domestic issues. However, Trump’s address tonight may be an exception.

In recent weeks, the administration has stepped up the U.S. military presence in the Middle East to exert pressure on Iran to curb its nuclear program. The Pentagon has dispatched another large aircraft carrier to the region. Amid tensions, another round of talks with Tehran is set for February 26th in Geneva. Lawmakers will be closely watching for any new announcements regarding Iran.

In Mexico, a U.S. aided military operation killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, a powerful drug cartel leader, on February 22nd. Lawmakers and foreign policy analysts will be listening for clarity on the extent of the U.S. involvement in the Mexican military’s operation.

Trump is also expected to highlight his broader efforts to broker peace around the world, crediting himself for ending eight wars.

According to Nichter, Trump may also address unresolved foreign policy issues, including Greenland, Cuba, Venezuela, and the Golden Dome missile defense system.

✪ THREE: Gallery Guests

The White House and lawmakers will both invite special guests to the State of the Union to highlight their political messages.

Over the weekend, Trump invited the U.S. Men’s and Women’s Olympic Hockey teams following their gold medal victories over Canada. The women’s team declined the invitation, citing scheduling issues. The men’s team is expected to attend.

Democrat lawmakers have invited several people who claim they were victims of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein; including Jess Michaels and the family of the late Virginia Roberts Giuffre, to demand legal consequences for those named in the files.

Some Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), will bring constituents to raise concerns about the impact of rising tariffs and health care costs.

Some Republicans are focusing on human rights abuses in China. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will host the daughter of Gulshan Abbas, a Uyghur doctor detained in China since 2018. Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) will host Claire Lai, daughter of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence.

✪ FOUR: Reaction

There have been numerous dramatic moments in past State of the Union addresses, most notably in February 2020, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tore up a copy of President Trump’s speech after he finished speaking.

However this time, the setting will be different. Seated behind Trump will be House Speaker Johnson and Vice President JD Vance.

Reactions from Democrats in the Chamber will be closely watched. As with previous years, some lawmakers are expected to stage symbolic protests, wearing coordinated colors or displaying signs.

The official response from the Democrat Party will be delivered by Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who won a landslide victory last November and became the state’s first female governor. Her response will air immediately after Trump’s speech.

Yemisi Egbewole, a Democrat strategist and former Biden White House adviser, said that Spanberger’s selection shows the party is changing its strategy by focusing on affordability and moving away from identity issues.

The response is expected to be measured and aimed at voters who are uneasy about Trump as president, even if they sometimes support Republicans, Egbewole said. “That is really where Democrats need to hit,” she said.

More than a dozen Democrats plan to skip the speech and attend an alternative event, the “People’s State of the Union” rally being held at the National Mall in Washington DC.

Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), as well as Reps. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Greg Casar (D-Texas), Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), and Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) are expected to skip the address.

✪ FIVE: Defending the Record

The address is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET and will be Trump’s second to Congress since returning to office. He previously spoke to a joint session of Congress on March 4 last year. While it was not an official State of the Union address, the speech was the longest on record, lasting nearly 1 hour and 40 minutes.

Tonight, Trump is expected to defend his record and outline his legislative goals in another lengthy address.

He will most likely tout economic milestones, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 points. He will also argue crime is falling nationwide.

He will likely highlight dramatic reductions in immigration flows at the southern border with Mexico. Trump has previously noted illegal immigration along that border has reached near-zero levels.

Tonight’s address is also considered a prime opportunity for the President to lay out his future legislative proposals. This year, Trump is expected to encourage the passage of the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE); a bill which would require identification & proof of citizenship to vote.

The President will also tout his other policies, such as banning male athletes with gender dysphoria from competing in women’s sports.

According to David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, Trump will have to keep his base energized while deciding whether to adjust his tone and message to win back the independent voters who helped elect him in 2024. Republicans’ chances of holding Congress depend on retaining those swing voters.

“His base is still mostly with him,” Schultz said. “The question becomes, does he only pitch to the base, or does he try to alter his language and approach to appeal to the swing voters?”

✪ Where To Watch:

LIVESTREAM LINK coverage of the President’s address @ 9PM EST tonight is available on this thread.✪