✪ Hong Could Cost Dems Midterms

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nless the polls in Wisconsin completely miss as badly as the pollsters projected in Michigan, DSA candidate Francesca Hong will likely win the Democrat nomination for Wisconsin governor tonight. She’ll have to compete in November against Representative Tom Tiffany; who has spent the last few weeks practically salivating at that prospect. The Wall Street Journal reports this morning Democrats “inside and outside Wisconsin” are experiencing a very apprehensive reaction to this outcome.

Establishment Democrats worry Hong can’t win the general election, but they have not coalesced around a single alternative to try to truncate her rise. The polling shows those challenges would continue even if they did rally behind someone.

The 37-year-old state representative and part-time bartender, a dues-paying member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has led in the polls ahead of the final day of balloting for the Democratic nomination for governor in a race that has been one of this year’s most chaotic.

Establishment Democrats are concerned Hong, on whom Republicans have spent millions because they think she would be easier to beat in November than any of the other Democrats in the race, could cost the party a winnable governorship in a key state.

That concern is based on her radical DSA branding, far-left policy views and past social-media posts which have called for everything from abolishing the police to canceling Thanksgiving because she views it as a “colonizer holiday.”

Just how worried are Democrats about Hong? She’s such an easy target even David Axelrod spoke up about the risk. Oddly, Axelrod offered this criticism as a way to shore up his support for an equally radical Abdul El-Sayed, fretting publicly that Hong’s “zany liberal, faculty lounge exotica” would hurt the Michigan Democrat’s chances against Mike Rogers in Michigan. Hong zinged back on Friday:

The problem for Hong is that it’s not just the “consultant class” that’s worried about her impact on the midterms. Unless Bernie Sanders has suddenly become a member of the consultant class, that is:

Even Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the country’s highest-profile Democratic socialist, is for now keeping his distance from Hong. He told the “Pod Save America” podcast last week that he didn’t expect to endorse her, at least not before the primary.

What does it say about someone when they’re too socialist even for Bernie Sanders?

Hong isn’t the only concern for Democrats this week. According to Punchbowl poll, an internecine fight between two mainstream Democrats in a Michigan House race may have cost Hakeem Jeffries a key pickup for November. Fingers are pointing at DSA candidate William Lawrence’s win last week, thanks to Jeffries’ incompetence and a little Akin Strategy from the GOP:

House Democrat leaders have known for months an intra-party clash was jeopardizing their shot at flipping a crucial swing seat in Michigan’s 7th District. Centrists Bridget Brink, Matt Maasdam and their allies were tearing each other apart. William Lawrence, a former Democratic Socialist of America member, was on the cusp of winning the August 4 primary.

At the DCCC’s behest, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called a key backer of each candidate: Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who recruited Maasdam, and former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, who overlapped with Brink in the U.S. diplomatic corps. Jeffries’ message: if neither would get out, would they at least stop attacking each other?

Neither side did get out or stop attacking each other. Lawrence won, and with that victory, Democrats may have lost their best chance of taking out Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.).

For those keeping score, The 7th District of Michigan has a Cook Index rating of “even.” That means this should be a winnable district for the opposition party in a midterm election with a relatively unpopular president. Trump won this district by a single point, 50/49, while Slotkin barely edged out Rogers, 49/48. In other words, it’s not a district screaming for socialism, but Republicans made sure the voter’s choice was between normalcy and radicals. However, the Left still managed to screw up even more at the same time

On July 24, Republicans placed their buy. The ads hit Maasdam and elevated Lawrence, and the spending ballooned as Democrats watched in horror.

Republicans had company. The political arm of Elect Democratic Women was running an online attack ad against Maasdam with similar messaging around the time the GOP buy began. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, an EDW founding member, was asked to get the group’s super PAC to yank the ad, per sources familiar with the conversation. A spokesperson for the group’s IE arm denied receiving any request from Clark.

The GOP successfully deployed the Akin Strategy in MI-07. They’d better stick the landing. Otherwise, they will add to a perception of momentum behind the DSA and the radicals. It’s not a sure thing in MI-07, although it does appear to have improved the odds of saving the seat and making it more difficult for Jeffries to take the gavel in January. 

Hong may end up as the poster girl for a ruined midterm and the disconnect of a major party from its own core voters. She and El-Sayed may partner in that endeavor, with James Talarico tagging along. Stay frosty, and be sure to watch for our live primary results poll tonight to track the action from Wisconsin and the other states.  ✪