Donald Trump’s Incredibly High Stakes

⭐️ americanlsgt

✪ Last week, Mike Johnson was re-elected as a speaker. Just a couple of votes against Johnson could have denied him a first ballot win; or aced him out of the running entirely…

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nother drawn-out, multi-ballot fight for the speakership would have been a needless distraction for president-elect Trump. Trump means to get out of the gate running. So, he stepped in. He made the difference. He worked the phones and whipped wobbly Republicans into line, ensuring Johnson a bare majority victory. Art of the Deal met LBJ — that other Johnson, Lyndon Baines, who as Senate majority leader and president dangled carrots and twisted arms with the best of them.

The Trump who pushed Mike Johnson across the finish line is the Trump who’ll need to drive, cajole, woo, and reward congressional Republicans, particularly through the critical first months of his presidency. Hands on isn’t a choice. Thin majorities and weak and untrustworthy congressional leadership require it.

Trump has decided to roll the dice bigly. He wants to pack a reconciliation measure full of his key proposals. To get that passed, it requires small majorities of congressional Republicans sticking together. That’s no small feat given usually balky establishment Republicans and some conservatives. Chip Roy comes to mind.

The Epoch Times reported January 8:

The entire Trump agenda is at stake because it depends on immediate action, given the looming midterm elections and Trump’s own term limit. If Congress cannot provide the funds for Trump’s initiatives within the next few months, experts say the president may struggle to get much done in his second term.

The good news is that Trump and his team get the urgency. He’s meeting with Republican senators and bringing key House Republicans to his Florida estate for Come to Trump meetings. Keeping Republicans unified and moving forward is a heavy lift.

NBC News reported January 5:

The Mar-a-Lago trips come after a tense speaker vote on Friday in which Trump had to personally convince at least two holdouts to support Johnson’s re-election. It also comes as Republicans prepare to take up one massive reconciliation package later this spring that will likely include an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax law.

NBC News continues:

Trump wants to make sure that Republican lawmakers across the ideological spectrum are unified and on the same page with his ambitious legislative agenda, two of the sources added.

Per The Hill, Trump is clear as a bell about what he wants in a massive package, January 5:

“We must Secure our Border, Unleash American Energy, and Renew the Trump Tax Cuts, which were the largest in History, but we will make it even better — NO TAX ON TIPS,” he added.

If Trump doesn’t take charge, the mountain won’t move.

John Thune, the new Senate majority leader, was a Mitch McConnell protégé. And we know that the enfeebled Mitch is no Trump fan. Thune and a gaggle of Senate Republicans had made noises about slow-walking confirmation hearings for Trump cabinet nominees and others. Again, it was Elon, Vivek, and the grassroots that pushed Thune and the likes of Joni Ernst and Thom Tillis to back down and play nice. Thune now pledges to move Trump nominees through the confirmation process briskly. We’ll see if that happens.

Lest we forget, 2026 is midterm elections. Retaining House and Senate GOP majorities hinge on Republicans making good on taxes, the border, and energy. Buying Greenland — a swell idea — isn’t make or break. Delivering for Trump voters on what Trump promised is nonnegotiable.

Should congressional Democrats control one or both legislative chambers in the last two years of Trump’s term, wheel-spinning wouldn’t be the worst of it. The other door that would open would be to malicious congressional investigations and a third impeachment farce. Don’t discount that possibility.

Given Trump’s take-charge approach, he learned a lot from his first presidency. Lesson One, don’t expect House and Senate Republican leaders to lead. Lesson Two, be audacious legislatively. Better to go bold than risk dying a death of a thousand cuts.

Still, even with Trump in command, an early legislative victory on a whole-ball-of-wax measure rests on the slimmest of House majorities. With a likely 220-215 GOP majority in the House after special elections, and a deceptively better majority in the Senate (at least a half dozen establishment Republicans are capable of balking), a handful of renegades can muck up the works.

As POLITIFACT pointed out, because of GOP vacancies, a reduced GOP House majority:

Means that in February and March — traditionally a period of heavy legislating, especially with a new president coming into office — a united Democratic conference can defeat any piece of legislation if just one Republican defects. (A 216-216 vote fails.)

Trump’s workaround to legislation and legislative logjams is executive orders, but they have limits.

Reuters reported on December 11:

President-elect Donald Trump is planning a blizzard of more than 25 executive orders and directives on his first day in office on Jan. 20 as he seeks to dramatically reshape U.S. government policy on issues from immigration to energy.

While a flurry of executive orders is needed and will have immediate impacts, passing a big legislative package remains critical. Executive actions are reversable. The next president can wholesale repeal Trump’s executive orders, as Joe Biden did on his first day in office… and as Trump will do to many of Biden’s orders when he’s sworn in on the 20th. To make the Trump revolution endure means passing legislation. Legislation is tough to amend and tougher to repeal.

The betting here is that Trump will again prove remarkable. In fact, he’ll have to be remarkable. Mike Johnson may get points for being a good guy, but tough isn’t in his DNA. John Thune is a D.C. lifer. He’s a capable politician but most certainly no Trumper. Thune needs to be harnessed to pull the load. Trump’s considerable skills as a businessman and leader are about to be tested in ways that, if successful, will not only contribute to his huge legacy but over the ripeness of time make him a legend. That isn’t hyperbole.

Trump’s mission is historic, purposely so. He isn’t interested in making America great again for 48 months. He means to course correct the U.S. He intends to make working- and middle-class Americans whole, establish a new set of rules, and elevate expectations for what the nation can and should be. That’s FDR/New Deal level stuff. That’s why Trump will lead where others can’t or won’t. ✪

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